I was pulled onto another project.. @r.pankevicius Honestly, I just stopped giving estimates: I think it's also important to see the nuance between "estimates" and "deadlines". want to be sure that I get your data to you in plenty of time, https://today.uconn.edu/2019/06/please-thank-impact-online-politeness/, https://www.researchgate.net/publication/233700639_Politeness_Myth_and_truth. Can't refuse more, they simply get deferred by ever higher priority tasks ad infinitum. Today through 4pm Sunday: Take $5K off the list price, Only $1,000 Earnest Money (Primary Residence. Which Is Correct: Delivered To Or Delivered At? I went into the code, figured out what lines needed to be changed, what other parts of the program it would affect, how much testing I'd have to do to ensure that things still worked. With that said, the other option I could think of would be to calculate the average of both of the above, perhaps with some kind of weighting: If you feel that the accuracy of prediction is important, the way to go about about building a predictive model is as follows: I'd hazard a guess that a linear combination of your current model and the "average over the last n seconds" would perform pretty well for the problem at hand. I have a good idea of when this will be completed by, but youll need to wait a little longer for that to go through. Pick up the phone and talk to them. that tend to be closer to the true values of the measurements and Making statements based on opinion; back them up with references or personal experience. It is only ever estimated, though, so it is liable to change depending on certain situations.if(typeof ez_ad_units!='undefined'){ez_ad_units.push([[300,250],'grammarhow_com-box-3','ezslot_1',105,'0','0'])};__ez_fad_position('div-gpt-ad-grammarhow_com-box-3-0'); ETA is a great acronym that relates to the estimated time of completion. As a rule, clients need a ballpark figure at the beginning of the project. To learn more, see our tips on writing great answers. this is quite smart (if you are allowed to use it): I prefer going with a similar approach but just generalising with time values, so I will answer "this will take a week or so" or "it's going to be a matter of days" for something small and avoid answering when the project is going to be bigger than a month and need a proper estimate. The preferred words are ETA, duration, and time frame. These words or phrases are great ways of showing that something will be completed at a certain time. 'Done' as in just finished coding it, or 'done' as in "the users are using it"? But "it'll be done when it is done" is only one step up from those. There are a lot of tactics for creating them, all based on getting good requirements first. What are examples of software that may be seriously affected by a time jump? Make it broad. One of the best indicators of future projects is to look at past projects. I imagine it ultimately comes down to company culture, or the disposition of those who you are working with. 'Done' as in just finished coding it, or 'done' as in "the users are Not likely. Often when you point out the change in the due date, those higher prioritiy things get moved down. Asking for help, clarification, or responding to other answers. Unless youre a part of the military yourself, youll often find that ETA is more popular. +Not technically the least helpful response. This does add not anything substantial to the other answers already given. How to exempt oneself from giving project completion time estimates? There are companies/cultures where "When it's done." You have had no time to analyse requirements, workshop with stakeholders, validate assumptions. Human nature sometimes makes it hard for us to ask for things. However, sometimes we need to know something by a certain date. Im really. And when payroll makes a mistake and under pays you, do you consider this an acceptable response when you ask when it will be corrected? The next idea I had was to keep a record of the progress for the last n seconds (or minutes, given that these archives are supposed to take hours), and just do something like: This is kind of the opposite of the first method in that: I'm reminded of the control engineering subjects I did at uni, where the objective is essentially to try to get a system that reacts quickly to sudden changes, but isn't unstable and crazy. . If dark matter was created in the early universe and its formation released energy, is there any evidence of that energy in the cmb? rclayton.silvrback.com/software-estimation-is-a-losing-game, marcgg.com/blog/2015/08/27/deadlines-estimates-software-startup, The Pragmatic Programmer: From Journeyman to Master, programmers.stackexchange.com/questions/132970/, The open-source game engine youve been waiting for: Godot (Ep. . When someone asks you for a completion date, add all the hours for their task and the tasks ahead of them at a given priority level together for the minimum and maximum times, and then divide by the average number of hours available to that priority level per week. Better: go speak to him personally to try to find out this information, using the same polite verbiage, above. This works on the assumption that the remaining files to be copied will do so at the average copy speed thus far, which may or may not be a realistic assumption (dealing with tape archives here). I think the target time is a bit skewed. If there are tasks that need to be done that never get done, you can consider implementing an time-based priority level increase. Give a range. How to accurately measure estimate without design as a Front End developer in agile? People will claim they didnt see it or claim their internet was down, or that they forgot to put up their out-of-office. Field service and maintenance companies can easily monitor these times using live tracking. Why does Jesus turn to the Father to forgive in Luke 23:34? Could very old employee stock options still be accessible and viable? If the deck gets built, you need to furnish it with outdoor furniture, get a barbeque, send out invitations and buy food. One way would be to put: Requesting Status Update (on the subject line) and write something similar to: "As discussed, I am waiting for ________ (name of project) which has a deadline of ________ and I would like to know, as of immediately, the status and your expected date of completion." Confidently. Certainly not. A model might be a mental model, diagrams, or existing data records. What matters is that you were 3 days off from a one week estimate. After calculating E and V for each activity, add up the Es, and you have an accurate time estimate for project completion. Think of it from the user standpoint, because that's all the client you're making the estimate for will typically understand. Find centralized, trusted content and collaborate around the technologies you use most. make a forecast on how much time it will take you to accomplish a task; use this forecast in your planning; add enough extra time for safety; measure the time it actually takes to accomplish the task; document the hours spent on a task in your journal; compare forecast and actual time after finishing the task; learn from this comparison; Include delay time and time for meetings, email communincation, refining requirements, unit testing, supporting qa testing, etc. Another good strategy that worked for me is to split a project into stages. Youll be waiting for ages if you dont! Or is there none? Don't do an estimate at this point. Because I have been on the job hunt, I believe I will soon have an offer. Is variance swap long volatility of volatility? Do EMC test houses typically accept copper foil in EUT? Well put everyone on this task! Option 1: Assign both users and estimated hours to a task at the same time. We have a safety issue with overhanging limbs from a large maple tree on 125 Maples property. It does require some experience in your field and the task at hand. Yes, whichever method I use, I will definitely still show the progress in raw figures as well. @DJClayworth does it help you in any way if you get told an arbitrary date, you make plans based on that date, and on that date find out the reality of "it will be done when it's done"? Its not the best target time, but its going to have to do. This value is refined after each transfer. Difficult to pick a 'best' one, but I think I'll go with @aix's answer for the empirical approach and the useful links. An example of data being processed may be a unique identifier stored in a cookie. Unrivaled Mac notes apps for fuss-free note-taking, 6 Actionable Tips for Improving Your Websites SEO, Copyright 2023 | WordPress Theme by MH Themes. "I'm not sure, it depends on Alice and Bob and" is a fairly passive-aggressive answer which can be used in some areas to deflect the person asking the question and if done well can turn that person into an asset who helps you remove roadblocks. The project will be delivered within the next twenty-four hours. (Off the record, I call these "guesstimates".). Why does politeness matter, though, when we ask? Suspicious referee report, are "suggested citations" from a paper mill? How long should you wait for someone to answer a question? I'm afraid, however, that the problem is that most organizations want estimates of much bigger tasks than the ones that can be expressed in .1 hour chunks. Err on the side of the looser estimate. Duration gives you an idea of how long something will take. This won't involve a change to your process/queue/prioritization - just a little extra work in time tracking of each task. Nobody has done an in depth analysis of In an ideal environment, the only things planned are for the ~2 weeks of your current sprint. And our advise is: discussion of the project and providing ballpark figures should just be steps well towards receiving componential estimate (which is flexible, one can make use of componential type estimate for the whole development process. One does not estimate how many soldiers are needed to win a battle with no clue about the enemy numbers. Of course, make this a computer application, not a physical board. Start by trying to get that deadline in writing: (Boss), thank you for letting me know about that project that is coming up. Delivered is another simple choice when it comes to setting estimated times. Hold on, what did you say the time frame was again? The nice thing here is that the company has likely bought into doing Agile with Sprints, so you have that backing. Is it going to be within the next three hours or not? Asking for help, clarification, or responding to other answers. PMs would be responsible for this. Get a detailed work breakdown, estimate each component then roll it up into a larger number. Weight the second method more if the copy speed is unpredictable, and is likely to do things like speed up/slow down for long periods, or stop altogether for long periods. In most, cases, you may trim branches up to the property line, yourself. Three-point estimating. They may also be worried about hurting your feelings or coming off as being confrontational. As we mentioned, estimated completion time refers to the time a service request is expected to be finished. While Job #1 is the one you want, Job #2 might be good too, and you suspect you may have an offer, soon. Estimate towards the complete user-end requirements, not towards the barebone technical requirements. You usually can't get away with being clever and saying "It will be done whenever it will be done" no matter how you frame it. Let them go fight out the priorities with the managers. all the implications. Based on comments on other answers, it appears that your problem is not time estimating but communicating delays based on changing priorities. ), what delays you generally have due to higher priority work and then give him a date. Martin has been featured as an expert in communication and teaching on Forbes and Shopify. Learn more about Stack Overflow the company, and our products. A newly proposed product or project will be similar (in size) to one or more already completed products or projects. ), 9 Other Ways to Say Im Good At on a Resume, 10 Polite Ways to Say No Visitors after Surgery, 11 Best Ways to Say Im Here for You to a Loved One, 10 Professional Ways to Say I Am Not Feeling Well. Manage Settings . Duress at instant speed in response to Counterspell. I did development for a guy who was very adamant about wanting accurate estimates. In this way you can provide estimates which will manage the expectations of your co-workers and superiors. Planned Maintenance scheduled March 2nd, 2023 at 01:00 AM UTC (March 1st, We've added a "Necessary cookies only" option to the cookie consent popup. Learners will be exposed to state-of-the-art methodologies and to considering the challenges of various types of projects. by accurate I mean that a stakeholder holds you accountable for. We dont have a lot of wiggle room here, so we need it to be quick. For context, I'm trying to predict the completion of a long file copy. During the transfer I compute a weighted average between the historic data and data from the current transfer, so that the closer to the end you are the more weight is given to actual data from the transfer. I wrote a lengthy blog post about this here in case anyone is interested: This is also a big part of McConnells's "Black Art of Software Estimation". Once you have a solution, estimating is easier. Connect and share knowledge within a single location that is structured and easy to search. Target time is a good one because it refers to an estimate. To calculate variance, with V being variance, use this equation: V=[(P - O)/ 6]^2. So he'd decide whether it was worth 8.5 hours of pay. have to refactor. What can I do to get better at estimating how long projects are going to take? You can abbreviate it to 'complete date' if you like. When asked about a completion date, what is the best way to say "it will be done when it is done"? people may be trying to plan things based on when the work will be completed. How to answer what is your estimated time to complete this coding task? Has Microsoft lowered its Windows 11 eligibility criteria? Any dev should be able to provide time estimates. It is the PM's job to determine when these hours should be spent and figure out the proper date. Sean, I would like a deck out here, but I would need it to be completely finished by June 10th, so that I have time to use it on July 4th. By clicking Accept all cookies, you agree Stack Exchange can store cookies on your device and disclose information in accordance with our Cookie Policy. Having tried to handle it amicably will have been documented if your neighbor suddenly objects. Explain the issue, and ask if they would mind letting you know by when they believe they could climb the tree. That's right, you. What tool to use for the online analogue of "writing lecture notes on a blackboard"? After all, if its something you want to do, go and enjoy it! It gives the answer you want, it's fairly factual and neutral in tone, and it suggests that an estimate could be made at some point, but certainly not right now here at the coffee machine without a clear picture of what would it actually mean to do the thing he's asking about. The new feature will probably break some assumptions you made in your Statistical Learning by Hastie, Tibshirani and Friedman. "That depends, how well does it need to work?" Only when you start coding you can find the exact issues. Track your estimates. If you slip a little into the 7th month, you're still pretty accurate. Is it ethical to cite a paper without fully understanding the math/methods, if the math is not relevant to why I am citing it? You could respond by saying, Yes, its been too long, how have you been, or some variation of that. Any alternative approaches to the two I have given. It's important to remember what an estimate is- a guess in many cases. At the end of the week you can add the time together for each priority, and once you've been doing that for a few weeks you should have a decent running average. 1 day to do analysis, and then provide a tighter range), If the task it too large, break it up and provide a range for each piece. Bottom up is best. Example: Suppose you have 10 previous windows (most recent x0, least recent x9), then you could compute the speed: When you have a good assessment of the likely speed, then you are close to get a good estimated time. You think this is ridiculous, you think you can pull this off in one week. Site design / logo 2023 Stack Exchange Inc; user contributions licensed under CC BY-SA. I like "there is no estimate for that yet.". Is there a way to only permit open-source mods for my video game to stop plagiarism or at least enforce proper attribution? Easily monitor estimated completion time with live tracking. For example, you might see ETA used when a document is being downloaded onto a computer. Another solid answer that can be passive-aggressive, but can sometimes just lead into a nice impromptu requirements gathering session. We, as programmers, are constantly being asked 'How long will it take'? No matter how conscious you are of all these things, sometimes your "programmer's pride" makes you give/accept shorter times than you originally suppose it might take. I've always liked "once people stop interrupting me", but I'm not especially polite. "That depends, what does it need to do?" The new feature will probably break some assumptions you made in your code and you start thinking immediately of all the things you might have to refactor. Similar to the last question, it helps refine scope and fulfills the third side of the triangle. Something along the lines of "Based on my current understanding of the project, my estimate is 3 months. ETA means estimated time of arrival. Arrival doesnt always have to refer to destinations or travel. Imho, bad implementations of ETC are wildly overused, which allows us to have a good laugh. Is that a realistic possibility? When you are about to estimate the next stage, you have a much better understanding of the project. All these are legitimate reasons for not having a good estimate, but they are also problems you need to be proactively raising with your manager (or in the first case, you could get an acknowledgement from them that the task can slip to allow for higher priority stuff). How can I deal with this situation? Identify a few past projects, and assign them the sizes S, M, L, XL. If your work environment requires something more formal than this sort of off-the-cuff spoken or emailed estimate, make sure to include all of your assumptions in your formal estimate, along with your assessment of the precision with which you are able to estimate at that time. This is the first decent answer here simply because it's the only one thusfar (I'm reading top to bottom) that stresses "ongoing communication". Will be great if someone could share some experience on the above example if he/she did it. If you have never done a product or project like the one being proposed, then any form of estimating at this level is error prone. How possible is it to estimate time for programming projects? Duress at instant speed in response to Counterspell. Make assumptions to fill in the gaps based on your best guess of what they want. To view the purposes they believe they have legitimate interest for, or to object to this data processing use the vendor list link below. A target isnt always set in stone, and its possible for you to move it around it you need to accommodate certain changes to a deadline or structure.if(typeof ez_ad_units!='undefined'){ez_ad_units.push([[300,250],'grammarhow_com-banner-1','ezslot_9',107,'0','0'])};__ez_fad_position('div-gpt-ad-grammarhow_com-banner-1-0'); Its not as confident as completion time or end time. It works well because it gives you a target, but it doesnt always require you to hit it. or clever way of say it is "Done when it is done" ? The idea is to compute the ETC from the last 'n' seconds or minutes (like your second idea). If so, I would like to hire you, and I would like to put it in writing.. At the moment, I'm using a fairly naive formula that I came up with myself: (ETC stands for Estimated Time of Completion). Best guess is about two weeks." Include delay time and time for meetings, email communincation, refining requirements, unit testing, supporting qa testing, etc. When it's necessary to take project schedule and cost performance into account (how efficiently time and money are being used) to revise a budget, use this formula to find estimates at completion. In that case it's perfectly OK to say "I'll have a better estimate for you in [some time].". Some advice from the dark side from one who learned the hard way. A wide range tells the recipient of the estimate Software projects are naturally complex and risky if you want a proper estimate you need to give me more details and more time. The requirements are unclear. in your estimate to get a better number. (Are you the same Kyralessa from the joel on software boards?). Welcome to Grammarhow!We are on a mission to help you become better at English. Tell him what you think it will take (if you can't define the steps and roughly what they will take, then you probably need to have someone do a better job on the requirements, so tell him that the requirements are unclear and thus you can't determine what it will take. By clicking Accept all cookies, you agree Stack Exchange can store cookies on your device and disclose information in accordance with our Cookie Policy. An added bonus was their respectful and positive personalities. If you would like to change your settings or withdraw consent at any time, the link to do so is in our privacy policy accessible from our home page.. What do 'real', 'user' and 'sys' mean in the output of time(1)? Guess who gets perceived as the jackass? I've recommended them to family and friends." I also always write my assumptions and preconditions. End time is a confident phrase like completion time. Its a good way of showing that something will come to an end at a specific moment. . An example of data being processed may be a unique identifier stored in a cookie. Make sure you understand what is being asked. Just be polite and ask if they had got around to it yet. An excellent resource for studying statistical learning methods is The Elements of I always say, "if you want an answer today it's a year and a million dollars. Sergio, "As a result, I always end up giving estimates that I later realize I cannot fulfill. A limited answer for people using sprints (often software engineers). How Do You Say Politely I Am Waiting For Your Reply? The estimations were important because other units may be inoperable until they received back their comms equipment. Martin holds a Masters degree in Finance and International Business. So if its vitally important to you, make HUMAN contact. You need to complete this to graduate. Studies have demonstrated that users reacted very badly to slow-down and very positively to speed-up. By the way, all of the above responses assume you are 'senior level' worker responsible for their own scheduling. It'll be 8 weeks before this receives an automatic priority upgrade, and then it'll take a week or two in that queue until it's finished.". Im not sure when theyll have this delivered. I dont understand the duration theyve listed here. A text conversation can go stale in a few hours, he says. This is more work and requires more in depth thinking about the design and changes to the system, but is much more accurate, especially for larger pieces of work. First, write the email or send the task reminder. There are occasions in life both business and social when you need a deadline. I highly recommend the McConnell book. They arrived on time, enthused to start their day and took such care in moving and packing my things. It has happened countless of times, and I always promise it won't happen again. Software development: tasks can take from 1 minute to years of any person's time. Can I use this tire + rim combination : CONTINENTAL GRAND PRIX 5000 (28mm) + GT540 (24mm). Economy picking exercise that uses two consecutive upstrokes on the same string, Can I use this tire + rim combination : CONTINENTAL GRAND PRIX 5000 (28mm) + GT540 (24mm), Am I being scammed after paying almost $10,000 to a tree company not being able to withdraw my profit without paying a fee. Or, if they are in a shared office space, go and talk to them. The screenshot below shows a dispatcher's view of service professionals' live status. A simple way to get that is to have a factor that is a percentage of the completion, that you use to tweak the estimated remaining time. Never write "it will work on IE8 or higher", be specific. One that I've used is this Free Online PERT Calculator. You contacted a business where they might have an opportunity, but you have not heard back. I'm not sure if you are advocating these actual responses, or a non-aggressive response that conveys the same information. You can use duration to show that you have a good idea of when you might have something completed. Record information about the problem you are estimating, your estimate, and the actual values. Ie, each developer enters how long they think each task will take, and later, how long that task took, and it guages how accurate each developer is with their estimates to produce a probability curve for a finish date. Or perhaps: No, unless this other task can be discarded (permanently). All that will do is irritate your manager and make you look incompetent. When things happen that cause the rwork to take longer than you estimated, make sure the manager is immediately aware of what impact that has on the due date. tl;dr: I want to predict file copy completion. Its not as common as ETA, so its probably best that you dont use it often. In this case, its business, and its not so much about politely asking, its about telling. Whats the end time youve got in mind? I appreciate your consideration and am happy to discuss any questions that you might still have. They may have good reasons. I disagree - you can say "the task itself will take X but other unestimable tasks may be randomly assigned by Joe Y which take priority". What are good methods given the start time and the current progress? - Next Wednesday around 4pm. So when my boss would ask in the standup (we work with Agile development) I would give him my best estimate and explain why I thought that. Surely it cant be completed that quickly! You need a baseline. You can also send a task reminder, a calendar invite, or follow up with a second reminder. Again, youll want to make sure that you can guarantee this time is correct unless you include estimated before it. Im sorry its not quicker! The consent submitted will only be used for data processing originating from this website. Next, select the resources you'd like to assign to the task, and enter either the Avg Hours/Day or Total Hours. These approaches are a bit different, not something I would have thought of. We understand you manage the property at 125 Maple Street. Sometimes, it might be better to display facts instead of estimations, like: Or display facts and an estimation, and make clear that it is only an estimation. Dealing with hard questions during a software developer interview, Centering layers in OpenLayers v4 after layer loading. "I don't know. To subscribe to this RSS feed, copy and paste this URL into your RSS reader. I will need your data by August 13th, by 1:00 p.m.. If not, or in case of doubt, involve your boss. To subscribe to this RSS feed, copy and paste this URL into your RSS reader. It also works to keep business honest. The estimate is made after scouting. Joe seems like a great worker, you seem unreliable now. It sucks, and it's wrong, but it's unfortunately reality. But I would not display only an estimation. If you dont find out soon, you will have to research other places. Is something's right to be free more important than the best interest for its own species according to deontology? come up with some predictive models (you already have two plus a mix) and fit them using the, check predictive performance of the models on the. The 'done' definition is probably unclear: When will it be done? Some of our partners may process your data as a part of their legitimate business interest without asking for consent. Probably managers will not accept that :). In todays office, its just a fact: People blow off deadlines. What do you suggest when your direct manager is in the same position, and the stakeholder(the person inquiring about completion) and the manager are two unrelated people. How did StorageTek STC 4305 use backing HDDs? We and our partners use cookies to Store and/or access information on a device. In fact, when you are making an estimate for your own company the estimate time is being paid as part of your salary also. I've read some books that say a range of -50% to +100% is good but it depends on many factors. Katie is a passionate digital nomad working on her first book on the art of communication. Make it clear where any contingency (if any) is added. Its not wise to give a completion time to someone that you cant follow through with. Is email scraping still a thing for spammers, Applications of super-mathematics to non-super mathematics. So in short, there are many bad ways to dodge the question.
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